Critically Evaluate how the Aviation Industry will need to Plan and Adapt due to Climate Change

Critically Evaluate how the Aviation Industry will Need to Plan and Adapt due to Climate Change  (Draft)   

With the changing climate, there is a need for the aviation industry to adapt to climate change which means airline companies need to take action to prepare for and adjust to both the current impacts of climate change and the expected future impacts of climate. Although initiatives had been introduced to help cut net global emissions to zero by 20250, greenhouse gas concentration is still on the rise and is expected to keep on rising in the coming decades, and an increase in the average global temperatures is also likely to rise. Consequently, heating of the temperature will result in all kinds of risks such as a change in wind patterns, heatwaves, droughts or floods, and coastal erosion caused by rising sea levels. The aviation industry is responsible for an approximated 4.9% of man-made global warming over the last 20 years (Happonen & Rasmusson, 2020). However, measures have been implemented to help reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) gas emissions from international aviation by initiating the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation or CORSIA, which aims at stabilizing CO2 emissions at 2020 levels by requiring airlines to offset the growth of their emissions after 2020 (Chao et al., 2019). Also, other measures to be adopted by the airline industry include developing lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft, engines and developing alternative fuels that are less CO2 intensive, improvement of infrastructure, use of more efficient flight procedures, weight reduction from airline operations, use of market-based measures (MBM), among others. Thus, this paper critically analyses how the aviation industry will need to plan and adapt due to climate change.  

The anticipated primary impacts of climate change on the aviation industry will be as a result of changes in temperature, precipitation (rain and snow), storm patterns, sea levels, and wind patterns. Effects of climate change on the aviation industry will include reduced aircraft performance, changing demand patterns, potential damage to infrastructure, loss of capacity, and schedule disruption. Based on a late survey contacted by EUROCONTROL, a good number of European aviation industry respondents (86%) consider that there is a necessity either now or in the future to reduce the impacts of climate change. However, an estimated 48% don’t have plans for adapting to the impacts of climate change. As such, there are strong operational, business, and regulatory reasons for airlines in the aviation industry to consider adapting to the impacts of climate change. 

Parts of Europe are currently facing climatic warming at a faster rate than the global average. The prediction shows that some parts of Europe could face a temperature increase of 4̊c-5̊̊ by the end of the century under a high emission scenario (Tol, 2016). Even with the expected IPCC’s medium emissions scenario, most of Europe anticipates a minimum of 2C. During summer, the strongest is expected in Southern Europe and in northeastern Europe and Scandinavia in the winter. Other than increases in average temperature, climate change has resulted in a greater range of extreme changes in temperatures. As a result of extreme temperatures, aircraft performances have been negatively affected, for instance, a reduction in lift, which consequently causes a knock-on effect on runway length requirements. Also, payload and range will be impacted. Extreme temperatures will further impact infrastructure through heating and cooling requirements and heat damage to runways and taxiways. Additionally, extreme temperatures will further change demand patterns, both seasonally and geographically. 

List of References 

Tol, R.S., 2016. The impacts of climate change according to the IPCC. Climate Change Economics, 7(01), p.1640004. 

Happonen, M. and Rasmusson, L., 2020. Aviation’s climate impact from inbound trips to Sweden. 

Chao, H., Agusdinata, D.B., DeLaurentis, D. and Stechel, E.B., 2019. Carbon offsetting and reduction scheme with sustainable aviation fuel options: Fleet-level carbon emissions impacts for US airlines. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 75, pp.42-56.